on 18-10-2016 10:04 AM
It’s interesting to see that the consumer in many nations is still performing better than trend, and Europe and the US are leading the way. What else is interesting is that the Japanese consumer started the year in the doldrums and is finishing the year now above trend.
Its only the big commodity producing nations of Canada and Australia where the consumer remains downbeat. Despite the very strong property markets, the Australian consumer is still reticent to spend above trend.
This EPI or an Economic Pressure Index is a proprietary indicator developed and used by our Global Fixed Income team in their investment process. The Consumer EPI tracks all economic releases by country that are consumption related, and scores each release relative to its medium term trend, so that the y-axis represents current level of consumption indicators above or below the long term trend in standard deviation units.
Could I suggest a task for the next week for you all - consider how your Australia/international split aligns with your thinking about relative economic performance for the next 12 to 18 montths. As always, any questions or feedback please reach out!