on 29-09-2016 09:11 AM
With only a few months left in 2016, we have the US Fed and the US election ahead of us, meanwhile 'risk on' has given most equity markets a pretty good quarter and now a respectable rolling 12 mths tailwind.
Now thinking about fixed income for a moment, well no one could complain that borrowing costs are to blame for patchy economic growth.
I continue to worry that we will require more on the fiscal side for nations that can afford to stimulate, along with possible exploration of 'helicopter' money in economies that are otherwise stagnating.
Interesting times for SMSF portfolio strategy. Keep some liquidity to be able to benefit as we move from a very low volatile market environment to perhaps somewhat higher volatility. Reach out if you would like to discuss further.
on 02-10-2016 11:38 PM
What are your thoughts on what seems to be a multitude of unpredictable macro risks we all face at the moment? For example, there would seem to be no logical way that the US electorate would vote in Trump, but he appears to have some chance of being elected, which would have a good chance of really spooking global markets. What is the best way of taking a defensive posture - take a sizeable chunk out of one's share exposure util after the US election? Put Option on the ASX200?
on 07-10-2016 09:27 AM
Thanks for your response.
While I can't advise you on specific investments, every SMSF investor should regularly consider the valuations of all of the assets held within their portfolio. Specifically, considering the type of future macroeconomic outlook that is either already reflected in the valuation and indeed whether there is future upside to return or to income etc should your expected macro view come to fruitition.
Generally, QE and central bank action has contributed to lifting the value of many assets and containing volatility or uncertainty. If we are nearing a pivot point where future economic uncertainty is rising, valuations of some assets will need to adjust.
Taking the time now to check the resilience of either part of or all of your portfolio will better enable you to navigate what could be an environment of increasing uncertainty in the months ahead.
I hope that helps with giving you a framework to consider your question along with a way to consider strategy choices from here.