on 02-02-2017 07:03 AM - last edited on 03-02-2017 09:35 AM by rosie
I know markets have been performing well since Trump's election, but there is a fundamental basis for the move higher. Here is a chart from our proprietary indicator set curated by our Global Fixed Income team. The chart shows that this indicator has spiked to a 6 year high in early 2017. There are a number of areas of strength at the moment including:
1. ESI - our economic surprise indices are strongly positive - the data is coming out much better than analysts expect;
2. macro pulse - this is a range of forward looking indicators of the direction of the global economy, and has been strong now for the last 3 or 4 months;
3. FCI & PCI - financial conditions and policy conditions are still supportive of future growth; and
4. Headline EPI - the drag from below trend economic indicators is fading;
It continues to be relevant to consider your growth and defense allocation in today's environment. Hope that helps - please reach out if you have a question or insight.