Blog: Shane's Economic Update

17th March 2017 - Outlook for markets

by AMP Capital expert Thursday - last edited Thursday

Shares remain vulnerable to a short term pull back, however, we see share markets trending higher over the next 12 months.

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Shares remain vulnerable to a pull back as short term investor sentiment towards them is very bullish. However, we see share markets trending higher over the next 12 months

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Shares remain vulnerable to a short term pull back as sentiment towards them remains very high. However, we see share markets trending higher over the next 12 months.

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The risk of a short term consolidation or correction in shares remains as sentiment towards them remains very high.

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20th January 2017 - Outlook for markets

by AMP Capital expert ‎23-01-2017 09:32 AM - edited ‎23-01-2017 09:34 AM

Shares remain vulnerable to a further correction/consolidation in the next month or so. However, we see share markets trending higher over the next 12 months.

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Shares have a very solid rally since the election of Trump in November on expectations of a lift in growth and inflation in the US & and the flow through to other economies.

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6th January 2017 - Outlook for markets

by AMP Capital expert ‎10-01-2017 01:24 PM - edited ‎10-01-2017 01:27 PM

Shares have experienced their traditional Santa Claus rally over the Christmas/New Year period. 

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16th December 2016 - Outlook for markets

by AMP Capital expert ‎16-12-2016 12:22 PM - edited ‎16-12-2016 12:23 PM

A shift in the interest rate differential in favour of the US as the Fed remains on its path to hike rates should see the long term trend in the $A remain down.

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12th December 2016 - Outlook for markets

by AMP Capital expert ‎13-12-2016 05:24 PM - edited ‎13-12-2016 05:25 PM

Shares remain overbought and are vulnerable to the Fed meeting in the week ahead. 

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Shares are now overbought & due for a pause and event risk could cause short term volatility

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While the US election is out of the way event risks could still cause short term volatility in share markets with policy uncertainty remaining high in the US.

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A shift in the interest rate differential in favour of the US as the Fed remains on its path to hike rates should see the long term trend in the $A remain down

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We remain cautious on shares in the short term as event risk is high

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Ultra-low bond yields point to a soft medium term return potential from them, but it’s hard to get too bearish on bonds.

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October is often a rough month for shares and we remain cautious on shares in the short term as event risk is high.

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While the period for seasonal share market weakness (August to October) so far has passed without a major mishap, we remain cautious on shares in the short term as event risk remains high.

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30th September 2016 - Outlook for markets

by AMP Capital expert on ‎04-10-2016 10:59 AM - last edited on ‎12-10-2016 01:05 PM by Community Manager

We remain cautious on shares in the short term as event risk remains high for the months ahead however, after any short term weakness, we anticipate shares to trend higher over the next 12 months.

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Fed shares remain vulnerable to a further correction or volatility in the next few months, and ultra-low bond yields point to a soft medium term return potential.

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Shares may get a short term boost if as expected the Fed leaves rates on hold in the week ahead.

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In the US, August retail sales will be a focus, while in Australia business conditions and confidence surveys to remain around the levels seen in July.

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2nd September 2016 - What to watch over the next week?

by AMP Capital expert ‎05-09-2016 08:59 AM - edited ‎05-09-2016 09:00 AM

In Australia, the Reserve Bank is likely to leave interest rates on hold. Globally, the G20 leaders' summit is likely to see the usual motherhood commitments to policy co-ordination, and in the US expect the ISM non-manufacturing index and data for job openings and hirings to remain solid.

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26th August 2016 - What to watch over the next week?

by AMP Capital expert on ‎29-08-2016 02:27 PM - last edited on ‎05-09-2016 09:01 AM by Community Manager

US focus on August job data, Eurozone economic confidence readings released and Chinese manufacturing conditions PMIs for August will be watched closely.

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In the US, the focus is likely to be on Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s address to the Jackson Hole symposium

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12th August 2016 - What to watch over the next week?

by AMP Capital expert ‎22-08-2016 08:54 AM - edited ‎22-08-2016 08:56 AM

In the US, expect the minutes from the July Fed meeting (Wednesday) to confirm that at the time it remained dovish and cautious

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22nd July 2016 - What to watch over the next week?

by AMP Capital expert ‎22-07-2016 04:01 PM - edited ‎22-07-2016 04:01 PM

The focus in the week ahead will be on monetary policy.

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15th July 2016 - What to watch over the next week?

by AMP Capital expert ‎15-07-2016 03:21 PM - edited ‎15-07-2016 03:21 PM

In the US, expect another solid reading for the NAHB home builders’ conditions index (due Monday).

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In the US, expect a modest gain in June retail sales, a slight improvement in industrial production and core CPI inflation around 2.2% year on year (all Friday).

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1st July 2016 - What to watch over the next week?

by AMP Capital expert on ‎01-07-2016 03:15 PM - last edited on ‎01-07-2016 03:24 PM by Community Manager

The week ahead will no doubt see bouts of Brexit related nervousness but it may continue to settle down in the absence of any new developments in Europe.

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The focus in the week ahead will no doubt see continued reaction to the Brexit referendum, particularly given an EU leaders’ summit on Tuesday and Wednesday.

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