In the US, the big focus will be on August jobs data (Friday) as the last major data release ahead of the Fed’s September 26-27th meeting. Expect a 180,000 gain in payrolls, a fall in unemployment to 4.8% and wages growth remaining around to 2.6% year on year. This should be enough to keep the September Fed meeting “in play” for a hike, but not enough to make it probable. In other data expect soft July personal spending growth and a fall in the core private consumption expenditure measure of inflation to 1.5% year on year (Monday), continued trend gains in home prices and unchanged consumer confidence (Tuesday), a modest rise in pending home sales (Wednesday), the August manufacturing conditions PMI to fall slightly to 52 (Thursday) and a slight improvement in the trade deficit (Friday).
Eurozone economic confidence readings for August will be released Tuesday but are likely to remain around okay levels. The confidence vote in the Spanish parliament for PM Rajoy will also be watched closely.
Expect Japanese data for July to show ongoing labour market strength but weakness in household spending (both Tuesday) and industrial production (Wednesday).
Chinese manufacturing conditions PMIs for August will be watched closely (Wednesday) but both the official and Caixin PMIs are expected to remain around the 50 level consistent with GDP growth around 6.5% or a bit more. The non-manufacturing PMI will also be released.
In Australia, expect July data to show a 2% bounce in building approvals (Tuesday) after two months of falls, continued moderate growth in credit (Wednesday), a 0.3% gain in retail sales and continued softness in June quarter business investment led by mining investment (both Thursday). Capital spending intensions data will be watched closely for any improvement in the outlook for non-mining investment and Core Logic data on August home prices (also due Thursday) will be watched to see whether recent strength in Sydney and Melbourne property prices has continued.
The Australian June quarter earnings reporting season will wrap up with only 12 major companies left to report in the week ahead including Harvey Norman and Adelaide Brighton.