Shares remain overbought and are vulnerable to the Fed meeting in the week ahead. However, we continue to anticipate shares to be higher into year-end as seasonal strength continues to kick in and see share markets trending higher over the next 12 months helped by okay valuations, continuing easy global monetary conditions, fiscal stimulus in the US, moderate economic growth and the shift from falling to rising profits for both the US and Australia.
Sovereign bonds are now very oversold and due for a short term pullback in yield. But still low bond yields point to a poor medium term return potential from them. The abatement of deflationary pressures as commodity prices head up, the gradual using up of spare capacity and a shift in policy focus from monetary to fiscal stimulus indicates that the long term decline in yields since the early 1980s is probably over. Expect the trend in bond yields to be up.
Commercial property and infrastructure are likely to continue benefitting from the ongoing search for yield by investors though as these two asset classes never fully adjusted to the full decline in bond yields.
Dwelling price gains are expected to slow, as the heat comes out of Sydney and Melbourne and as apartment supply ramps up which is expected to drive 15-20% price falls for units in oversupplied areas into 2018.
Cash and bank deposits offer poor returns.
A shift in the interest rate differential in favour of the US as the Fed remains on its path to hike rates should see the long term trend in the $A remain down.